The big picture: New data from the U.S. Census Bureau and an economist survey reveal that AI is primarily impacting the wages and employment of recent college graduates, not lower-skilled workers as previously assumed.

Why it matters: This shift challenges conventional wisdom about AI's labor market effects, forcing businesses to re-evaluate talent acquisition strategies and compensation benchmarks for entry-level roles.

Between the lines:

• AI-exposed majors like computer science and accounting see a 5% drop in initial job placement and a 13% decline in starting earnings.
• Half of the earnings decline is due to graduates moving into lower-paid sectors like retail and service.
• Economists now overwhelmingly expect AI to exert more wage pressure on college-educated workers.

Staffing & HR impact: Staffing firms and HR departments must adjust entry-level compensation benchmarks for AI-exposed roles, as traditional surveys may overstate current market rates. Recruiters should also anticipate a broader talent pool for non-degree-requiring roles from displaced graduates.

The bottom line: The AI revolution is reshaping the value of a college degree, creating a seniority trap where only experienced AI professionals command a premium.