The big picture: The UCLA Anderson Forecast projects continued economic growth nationally and in California through 2028, despite persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and a weak labor market.

Why it matters: Staffing and HR leaders must navigate a complex economic landscape where strong GDP growth coexists with slow payroll expansion and high unemployment, particularly in key states like California.

Between the lines:

• National GDP growth is expected to remain above 2% through 2026, supported by AI investment and technology equity valuations.
• California's economy grew 3.7% in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing the national average, yet its unemployment rate hit 5.1% in August.
• Monthly payroll growth is forecast to stabilize between zero and 50,000 jobs, with unemployment near 4.2% nationally.

Staffing & HR impact: Recruiters will face a tight labor supply due to demographic trends and immigration restrictions, while businesses contend with elevated operating costs from persistent inflation and high interest rates. Compliance teams should monitor regional labor market disparities.

The bottom line: Economic resilience is not translating into robust job growth, creating a challenging environment for talent acquisition and workforce planning.